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Showing posts from 2018

USD / Gold / Alibaba / FX Options

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Gold 1) We witnessed the break of the $1,200/oz psychological support for Gold last week as price action accelerated on the downwards momentum after the psychological break. 2)Gold looks poise to record yet another monthly loss, matching the milestone in 1996 when the yellow precious slumped for a record of 5 consecutive months as well, though degree of drop was different. 3)Gold investors has been struggling tremendously on the back of the rallying USD as status of safe haven currency/asset is being questioned during this period of heighten tension of geopolitical risk. 4) Non-commercial COT positioning also hit extreme bearishness, going into negative territory for the first time in  17 years  [ see chart below] (Bloomberg) China Tech/ Alibaba 1)Last week we saw some of the China tech names exhibiting some form of rebound after dismal earnings from Tencent in mid-last week dragged Chitech space even lower initially. Stocks like Baidu and Alibaba traded to their

How is Walmart Doing After Its Dismal Feb Earnings

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Entries advised last Friday. For request to be put in mailing list, please send request to sgwyckoffvsa@gmail.com Walmart dropped close to $18 since it reported a weak set of earnings in Feb. Share price had since plunged almost 17% since then. Revenue was higher but a missed on profits ; lower e-commerce growth than expected and a lower 2018 guidance saw Walmart took a beating. Reason could be more due to the heighten valuation rather than the result as result was actually fairly inline. Prior earnings WMT valuation was at  24p/e X multiples which does seems very expensive as compared to other annual earnings Forawrd p/e currently at 16.63 while current P/E 17.65 have traded nearer back to its 2017 average levels. [See Chart with P/E ] On valuation, the risk on Walmart is that it is more expensive than many of its retail competitor while it struggles against e-commerce giant Amazon [See Peers valuation ] Bloomberg consens