NZDUSD / USDCAD
Very Quiet week as market awaits a slew of Central Banks
meetings, BOJ/BOE/FOMC/G20 and not forgetting the Dutch election risk today.
I am currently looking at just 2 charts which I thought they
are at interesting levels.
NZDUSD : No 3 red weekly closes since 2015 June. As
seen on chart below, since June 15, each 2 consecutive of weekly losses in
NZDUSD was met with a positive close on the following week. History to repeat?
Risk : More hawkish FOMC meeting/dot-plot could see NZDUSD
back below 0.69 and test its Dec low in 2015. Disappointment in NZD GDP q/q on
Thursday will be key as well.
USDCAD/Oil : WTI pieced through the important 200
days moving average after the break of a rising wedge.
While the oil selling momentum is strong to the downside, USDCAD is currently close to the key psychological level of 1.35 with a possible triple top formation. Gut feel is that we will trade above 1.35 this week and could find a better short level then. From the option market ytd, April $47 puts saw 16k lots traded, most in life of contract with a decrease in O/I that could indicate profit taking and waning momentum [Source : Bloomberg]
While the oil selling momentum is strong to the downside, USDCAD is currently close to the key psychological level of 1.35 with a possible triple top formation. Gut feel is that we will trade above 1.35 this week and could find a better short level then. From the option market ytd, April $47 puts saw 16k lots traded, most in life of contract with a decrease in O/I that could indicate profit taking and waning momentum [Source : Bloomberg]
Risk : Oil continues to drop lower/OPEC nations/ Saudi make no effort to talk up oil prices.
No charts in blogpost but you can bring open up ur own charts...
Cheers
/hw
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